After losing the Player of the Year (Ballon d’Or) award to Lionel Messi for four consecutive years, Cristiano Ronaldo won the award in 2013. This and Ronaldo’s great start to the new season have fueled a longstanding debate about whether He is a better player than Messi.

The discussion has centered on a particular set of statistics, namely goals. To the extent that the data can help us make an educated guess about player performance, Messi is the better of the two at club and international level.

However, if goals are used as the criteria for comparing players, it is not enough to just look at the number of goals scored. You should also break down the conversion rate into aspects such as whether the shots are from inside or outside the box, goal expectancy, i.e. whether an average player would score given the opportunity presented, and the quality of the opponents.

CLUB LEVEL

The results of a recent mathematical study were published in the Washington Post and showed that, between 2009 and 2013, Messi’s average quality of chances (ie quality of chances created) was higher than Ronaldo’s. Ronaldo had more shots, but they were mostly from long range and he only scored 30 goals out of 587 such shots, while Messi scored 28 goals out of his 287 long range shots. Messi was more efficient because he converted a higher percentage of his shots, that is, from 9.75% to 5.11%.

The study found that Messi is better at placing himself in scoring positions, as he had 29 danger zone shots (from inside the box) compared to Ronaldo’s 20.

Messi is also the best finisher. In the period 2009/10 to 2013/14, Messi averaged 40% more goals than expected goals compared to Ronaldo’s 20% (see WASHINGTON POST – Despite great season, Cristiano Ronaldo is no better than Lionel Messi; by Michael Caley, November 7, 2014).

Last season, Ronaldo broke the norm and surpassed Messi. This propelled him to win the Ballon d’Or in 2013. But this must be seen in light of the fact that Messi missed part of the year through injury and when he returned to play he almost matched Ronaldo’s tally of 31 by scoring 28 late on. of the 2013/14 season.

Also, in the current season, Ronaldo is off to a great start scoring 12 goals without penalty to Messi’s 7. A plausible explanation for this is not that Ronaldo is now a better player, but rather that he attributes it to the changing roles of both players at their respective clubs.

With the addition of Neymar and Luis Suárez on the flanks of Barcelona’s 4-3-3 formation, Messi now plays a deep role in the game that has led to his goals trending downward while his assists increase. His goals per game dropped from just under 1.50 in the 2012/13 season to 0.86 in 2014/15 while his assists in 2013/14 were just under 0.50 and they rose to 0.86 in the current season.

At Real Madrid the trend was the opposite. With the recent addition of Gareth Bale and James Rodriques in midfield, Ronaldo is now more of a striker and less distribution-focused. He now takes more shots from inside the penalty area and in the current season his 12 goals without a penalty except 2 were from inside the box. His goals per game increased from 1.00 in 2013/14 to 2.20 in 2014/15, while his assists in the same period fell from 0.25 to 0.17 (ESPN FC GLOBAL- Realigning Stars: Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo Face Changing Roles; by Michael Cox, October 23, 2014).

INTERNATIONAL LEVEL

Messi has a better goal rating than Ronaldo. All-time statistics for all competitions show that Messi has 44 goals in 95 games (0.46 goals per game) while Ronaldo has 51 in 116 games (0.43 goals per game) (INTERNATIONAL STATS – November 8 of 2014).

World Cup: Messi also surpasses Ronaldo with 5 goals in 15 games (0.33 goals per game) to Ronaldo’s 3 goals in 13 games (0.23 goals per game) (INTERNATIONAL STATS, etc.).

Messi’s record is very impressive. In 2014 he led Argentina to the final, was voted Man of the Match in 4 games (the most of any player in the competition) and won the Golden Boot as the tournament’s best player.

Contrary to what some critics say, he was the one who made the most use of this last award. He had the biggest impact on the competition, as Argentina would not have reached the final without him. He was the joint top scorer with 4 goals and assists, created the most chances, had the most successful dribbling runs, made the most deliveries into the box and produced the most through balls of any player.

In contrast, Ronaldo has a pitiful record. He has only scored three times and against weak opponents, namely a penalty against Iran (2006), the sixth goal in a 7-0 win against North Korea in 2010 and a late goal against Ghana in 2014. In the last his only real tournament contribution was an assist against the US.

QUALITY OF OPPONENTS

Messi has more career goals for club and country. He has a total of 420 goals in 564 games (or 0.74 goals per game) while Ronaldo has 449 goals in 702 games (or 0.63 goals per game).

The important difference is that Argentina have more game-changing goals and against stronger opposition. His goals are directly associated with winning La Liga titles, Champions League victories, Olympic gold medal matches, and Club and Youth World Cups.

For example, on March 24, 2014 with Barcelona he has scored against the best teams, namely 21 against Real Madrid (Barcelona’s fiercest rival), 20 against league champions Atlético Madrid and 18 against Sevilla. (most successful club in Andalusia). In Champions he has 12 against German teams, 8 against English teams and 5 against Italian teams. And in the 2014 World Cup he scored 4 winning goals.

Ronaldo, on the other hand, has failed to score in decisive matches and managed to score multiple goals against weak teams not only with his club but with his country. For example, in the English Premier League for Manchester United he only scored 2 goals in 9 games against Liverpool (United’s fiercest rival) and scored 1 goal in 15 games against stalwart Chelsea.

In the Champions League with United he did not score in his first 26 games and although he scored in the 2014 final with Real Madrid he had little impact in the other final he played in 2009 in the 2-0 defeat against Barcelona.

In Spain in his first 9 games against Barcelona (Real Madrid’s main rival) he scored just 3 goals.

In the World Cup he has a pitiful record which was discussed above and in the European Championship he has 6 goals against the minnows of Greece, the Czech Republic and a weak team from the Netherlands and underperforms against strong teams like Germany and Spain.

In general, the statistics show that Messi is the better player because he is better at getting into goal positions, he is a better finisher and he is a more efficient goalscorer. Messi has an age advantage because he is 27 and Ronaldo is 29 and while both are likely to keep playing for a few more years, Argentina will have more time than Ronaldo to extend his record of achievements. Meanwhile, the debate continues.

Victor A. Dixon

November 20, 2014